The FBI’s background check numbers are the closest thing the firearm industry has to a monthly sales report. September 2026’s numbers tell two stories at once: overall demand held close to last year, while demand for suppressors and other NFA items exploded.
The headline numbers
According to the NSSF figures reported by AmmoLand:
- NSSF-adjusted NICS checks: 1,152,077, down 2.3 percent from 1,179,424 in September 2025.
- Raw FBI NICS checks: 1,843,700, down 0.8 percent from September 2025.
- NFA checks: 149,614, up 129.2 percent from 65,273 a year earlier.
The NSSF-adjusted figure is the one to watch. It strips out checks that are not tied to gun sales, such as permit checks and rechecks, so it is a better stand-in for actual purchases. Raw NICS numbers include everything.
Why NFA demand is surging
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut the federal making and transfer tax on suppressors, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns and AOWs to $0. For many buyers, that $200 tax was the deciding factor. Removing it opened the door.
The surge also came before the ATF’s October 9 announcement that it would stop enforcing NFA registration and approval requirements for those same items. October’s numbers will be the first to show that policy’s effect.
Reading the dip
A 2.3 percent drop is small, and the year as a whole has run ahead of 2025 in most months. AmmoLand’s writer suggested high fuel prices and tighter household budgets may be weighing on spending. That is a reasonable theory, but it is a theory. Background checks do not tell us why people buy or don’t buy.
What it means for buyers
- Suppressors may get easier to find, then harder. Manufacturers have been ramping up, but a fresh wave of demand after October 9 could stretch inventories again. If you are planning a hunting suppressor, shop early.
- Steady demand is good for prices. A flat market tends to mean more promotions on handguns and rifles heading into the holidays.
- Watch your state law. Federal changes do not change state rules on suppressors and short-barreled firearms.
GUN Crusade will report October’s numbers when NSSF releases them in early November.
NICS checks are not a direct count of sales. One check can cover several firearms, and some sales do not require a check.
